Well, we’ve come down to the final game.  Arizona vs Pittsburgh for all the marbles.  On the surface this looks like a classic battle of contrasting styles with the high powered offense of the Cardinals running head on into the bruising defense of the Steelers.  But, if you look deeper you see that Pittsburgh is averaging 29 points a game in it’s two playoff games while the Arizona defense in it’s three playoff contests has forced 12 turnovers.  I think this is the key matchup.  Arizona’s offense is going to put up some points and Pittsburgh’s defense is going to make some big plays, it’s what they’ve done all year and I don’t think it’s going to change now.  The question becomes will Pittsburgh’s offense with injuries to both QB Ben Rothlisberger and WR Hines Ward be able to put up enough points themselves and will they see the Cardinals defense that forced those turnovers in the playoffs or the one that ranked 28th in the league during the regular season allowing 26.6 points a game.

Pick: I’m going to go against the grain here and say the Cardinals continue to force the turnovers and score just enough to win.  Arizona 27, Pittsburgh 24

Last Week: 2-0

Season: 101-48-1

Well, that’s it for this season, enjoy the game!

Well, we’re getting down to it now.  Only four teams are left with a chance to call themselves Super Bowl Champs.  Who would have thought coming in to the playoffs that at this point Arizona would still be alive while both Manning boys and the Titans would be done.  Anyway, here are my picks for who will meet in Super Bowl 43.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh: The Steelers appear to be the clear favorite to win it all at this point with the highest remaining seed and the league’s best defense during the regular season.  However, they come up against a Ravens defense that has allowed just 19 points while forcing 8 turnovers in two playoff games.  This looks like a smash mouth defensive struggle as Pittsburgh looks to knock off Baltimore for the third time this season.  The Steelers won the previous two meetings by a total of seven points.  I think being at home and the fact that Baltimore will be playing for the 18th week in a row gives the very slight edge to the Steelers.

Pick: Pittsburgh

Philadelphia at Arizona: This is also a rematch from the regular season as the Eagles hammered the Cardinals 48-20 on Thanksgiving in Philadelphia.  However, this match up will be in Arizona and the Cardinals have played much better at home.  Arizona’s offense has been it’s calling card all season and the playoffs have been no exception has they are averaging 31.5 points a game in the postseason.  But in their two playoff games the defense has come up with some playing plays forcing 9 turnovers including six last week at Carolina.  The Eagles defense has been stout as well allowing just 12.5 points a game and forcing 5 turnovers of their own in their two playoff games.  I think the return of Anquan Boldin will only make the Cardinals offense even better as they are the only one of the three teams having that have played twice in the postseason to have topped 30 points in b0th games.  I think that will be the difference in this game.

Pick: Arizona

Last Week: 1-3

Season: 99-48-1

This weekend the big boys getting going after last weeks byes.  Here’s who I think will win.

Tennessee over Baltimore-This should be a knockdown, drag out fight between two teams with stout defenses who like to run the ball as evidenced by Tennessee’s 13-10 win early in the season.  Given the extra time to prepare and being at home I like Tennessee to get the win again.

Carolina over Arizona-The Cardinals did well to make a lot of people (including yours truly) to look bad by beating Atlanta at home last week.  However, I don’t think they’ll have enough to take out the Panthers who are the only team not to lose at home this year.  It will be especially difficult if Anquan Boldin is unable to play or limited by his injury.

New York Giants over Philadelphia-This is teh rubber match between these two teams this year with each team winning on the other one turf.  While I give all kinds of credit to Donovan McNabb and the Eagles for getting to this point, I think with the week off to rest some of their banged up players (namely Brandon Jacobs), I think the Giants will be more like the team that scored 36 points on the Eagles in week 10 than the one that struggled to get 14 points in week 14.

Pittsburgh over San Diego-The Chargers have made a valiant effort to still be playing at this point in the season, but I think they are just too banged up to knock off the Steelers in the cold and the muck of Pittsburgh.  Although their chances improve if Ben Rothleisberger shows any ill effects from his concussion.

Last Week: 2-2

Season: 98-45-1

This weekend starts the one and done stage of the NFL season.  Here’s who I think will still be standing.

Atlanta over Arizona-This is a match up of two powerful offenses that get it done in different ways.  Arizona ranked 4th in the NFL in total offense almost exclusively behind Kurt Warner and the 2nd best passing game in the league.  The Cardinals however, were the worst rushing offense at just 73.6 yards a game.  That inability to run could be a problem against the Falcons, who ranked 6th in total offense and will look to control the clock behind Michael Turner and the league’s 2nd best rushing attack.  Atlanta is also the hotter and maybe more confident team coming in having won five out of six while Arizona lost four out of five before a season ending 34-21 win over Seattle.

Indianapolis over San Diego-I think this is an uphill battle for the Chargers.  Despite the fact they won four straight to steal the AFC West from the Denver Broncos, they face the hottest team in the league in the Colts who have won nine straight.  Regardless of the health of LaDanian Tomlinson, I don’t think the match ups are good for San Diego either.  The Chargers offense relied much more heavily on Phillip Rivers and the passing game than was probably expected at the start of the year, ranking 7th in the league throwing the ball.  However, the Colts ranked 6th in the league against the pass.  On the other side of the ball, MVP Peyton Manning and the Colts offense ranked 5th in pass offense and will face a Chargers defense that ranked next to last in defending the pass.

Baltimore over Miami-The plan for the Ravens all year has been simple: run the ball, ranking 4th in rush offense and play great defense, ranking 2nd in total defense and pass defense and 3rd in rush defense and scoring defense.  For Miami, who may be the 2nd hottest team in the league having won 9 of their last 10 games, their offense has been more balanced ranking 10th throwing the ball and 11th running it.  On defense they could give the Ravens some problems as they ranked 10th in the league against the run.  However, I just don’t think the Dolphins have the explosive weapons on offense to deal with the powerful Ravens defense.

Philadelphia over Minnesota-The Eagles are the only one of the eight teams playing this weekend to rank in the top ten in both total offense (9th) and total defense (3rd).  I wouldn’t look for a ton of rushing yards in this game as the Vikings were the best at stopping the run allowing just 76.9 yards a game and the Eagles ranked 4th at just 92.6 yards a game.  That last stat could bode very badly for Minnesota who relies heavily on the run ranking 5th in the league at 145.8 yards a game on the ground, while ranking 25th through the air offensively.  The Eagles conversely rank 6th in passing yards and just 22nd running the ball.  I think these numbers point to an Eagle victory and a date next week with the defending champs in New York.

Last Week: 12-4

Season: 96-43-1

A highly successful era in Denver Broncos history ended yesterday when owner Pat Bowlen fired head coach Mike Shanahan after 14 years at the helm of the Broncos.  In those 14 seasons Shanahan was 138-86 in the regular season winning 3 division titles, making the playoffs 7 times, and winning 10 or more games 7 times.  Shanahan was 8-5 in the postseason winning back-to-back Super Bowls with John Elway in 1997 and 1998.

But, there in lies the biggest criticism of Shanahan, his inability to win without Elway.  In the four years with Elway, Shanahan’s record was 47-17, a .734 winning percentage with two division titles.  In the postseason he was 7-1 including the two Super Bowl wins.  In the 10 seasons since Elway retired Shanahan’s record in Denver is 91-69, a .569 winning percentage with his only division title coming in 2005, the last time the Broncos made the playoffs.  In the playoffs he’s 1-4 without Elway with an average margin of defeat of 22.8 points.

You’ll probably hear a lot about how he’s just 24-24 over the last three seasons since the Broncos last made the playoffs.  But, in reality it’s even worse than that given they started 2006 7-2.  Since that point they are just 17-22 and have played some of the worst defense in the NFL.  The ranked an okay 14th in total defense in ‘06, dropped to 19th in ‘07, and then all the way down to 29th this season.  Couple that with a report that he wouldn’t fire the defensive coordinator and the picture of his dismissal becomes clearer.

Now in all fairness this year’s Broncos suffered some tough injuries using 7 different running backs and missing one of the top cornerbacks in the league in Champ Bailey for seven games.  But, even with all that they sat at 8-5 with a three game lead and just three games to play and were unable to get it done, culminating with an embarrassing effort in a do or die game at San Diego that resulted in a 52-21 loss.  But, this isn’t the first time they’ve closed the season poorly.  Last season they lost four of their last 6 games and 2006 it was five of the last seven.  The blame for that has to reside with the head coach.

So, what’s next for Shanahan.  There are a few openings at this point and I think of those currently available I think he would be a great fit for the Cleveland Browns.  With his pedigree of offensive success, he would be a terrific coach to mentor Brady Quinn.  Also, his reputation as a disciplinarian could help rein in some of the troubled personalities the Browns have like Kellen Winslow, Jr.  Now, the Browns have some defensive issues like Denver but, if they bring in a separate GM so Shanahan can focus solely on coaching that can be rectified, as well.  I just think it would be a good fit.  After Cleveland, if the position was to become available the Dallas Cowboys would be a great place for Shanahan as he has already shown that he can take a team ready made to win to the Super Bowl.  Of course, he could choose to go the Mike Holmgren route and take a year or so off.

The other question coming out of this is what’s next for the Broncos.  If he’s interested in coaching next season I think you have to do all that you can to get Bill Cowher to come to Denver.  The Broncos have plenty of weapons on offense, although getting a running back that can stay healthy would be good.  But, they need a lot of help defensively so bringing a defensive coach like Cowher would be a definite step in the right direction.  In 15 seasons in Pittsburgh Cowher’s teams ranked in the top ten in total defense 12 times ranking #1 twice.  In the other three seasons they ranked 13th, 12th, and 11th.  Now of course it will cost some money to get him and the Broncos might not be inclined to spend too much given the reported $20 million they owe Shanahan over the next three years.  In that case I think an assistant like Steve Spagnuolo from the Giants would be the next best option.

However, no matter what the next steps are for both Shanahan and the Broncos, yesterday was defintiely a sad day for Broncos fans as one of the most successful eras in team history came to end.

Happy Holidays everyone.  Sorry I haven’t posted in awhile, but I’ve been busy spending the holidays with the family.  Anyway, on to the business at hand.  Week 17 is always is tough week to predict with some games featuring two teams with a lot on the line (Denver at San Diego, for example), some with just one team having a playoff spot on the line (i.e. New England at Buffalo), some with neither team having anything on the line but pride and their jobs (like Kansas City at Cincinnati), and finally you have games with a team that has clinched a playoff spot or home field and with nothing to play for rests their starters or plays them limited snaps (Tennessee at Indianapolis, perhaps).  Anyway, with that as a backdrop here are this week’s picks:

Atlanta over St Louis-The Falcons have clinched a playoff spot but, can still win the NFC South with a win and a Carolina loss.  The Rams are just trying to avoid their 10th straight defeat.  I think the Falcons will run all over a demoralized Rams defense.

New England over Buffalo-The Bills threw a monkey wrench the Denver Broncos playoff plans last week with a win in Denver.  They’ll attempt to knock out the Patriots this week.  New England can get in with a win and a Baltimore loss or they can win the AFC East with a win and a Miami loss.  I like the Patriots to at least make it interesting with a win as I don’t think you can ever bet against Bill Bellicheck in a big game.

Cincinnati over Kansas City-The Bengals will look to carry some momentum into the offseason with a three game winning streak to end the year after wins over Washington and Cleveland the last two weeks.  Kansas City may not be as far off as it may appear with 7 losses by 7 points or less.  I just think the confidence of a couple wins and being at home will give the Bengals he edge.

Green Bay over Detroit-The Packers are all that stand between the Lions and a winless season.  Honestly, they might have a shot in this matchup as the Packers limp in having lost five in a row themselves.  The Packers are clearly the better team but, the difference maybe whether they are professional and play hard to the end or just go through the motions in a game for all intents and purposes doesn’t mean a thing.

Indianapolis over Tennessee-This one is one that’s tough to predict as both teams are in the playoffs and have nothing to gain from winning this one.  So, how much they show in this game for a potential playoff meeting and how much each teams starters play, if at all, will be big factors here.  I think the Colts win as they look to make a statement that they can beat the Titans.

Minnesota over New York Giants-This game means so much more to the Vikings with the Giants having clinched the top spot in the NFC by beating Carolina last week.  Minnesota can win the NFC North with a win or a Chicago loss.  I’ve always thought that the more desperate team usually wins and in this case its the Vikings.

New Orleans over Carolina-The Panthers have clinched a playoff spot and can win the NFC South with a win or an Atlanta loss.  However, I like New Orleans on the fact that in division games in the NFC South the home team is 11-0.

Pittsburgh over Cleveland-The Steelers have clinched the #2 seed in the AFC so they might rest some players in this game.  However, Cleveland got shutout last week by Cincinnati and is on their fourth QB of the year, so the backups for Pittsburgh should still be good enough to stop the struggling Browns.

Tampa Bay over Oakland-Three weeks ago at 9-3 the Bus looked primed to make some noise in the postseason, but after three straight defeats they now need help just to get in.  Hosting the 4-11 Raiders should help them get off the snide but, to get a wildcard berth they need at least Dallas to lose and possibly Minnesota or Chicago (there are some other ways involving a bunch of ties that I’m just not going to get into).

Chicago over Houston-This could be one of the best games of the weekend with the Texans having won four in a row before losing last week in Oakland and looking for just their second non-losing season in franchise history and the Bears still hoping to get into the playoffs.  The Bears clinch a wildcard with a win and loss by Tampa and Dallas.  They can also win the NFC North with a win and a Minnesota loss.  Chicago as gotten hot when they needed to winning three in a row and I think that momentum and desperation get them a close win in this one.

Miami over New York Jets-The Dolphins have to be the feel good story of the year after going 1-15 last year and having a chance to win the AFC East this year.  A win or a New England loss will get it done.  The Dolphins, who have won three in a row,  can also get a wildcard spot with a tie and a Baltimore loss.  For the Jets things are more complicated.  They can still win the division with a win and a New England loss, but a win and a Baltimore loss gets the Jets a wildcard spot even if New England wins.  However, I don’t think any of that will matter as the Dolphins are playing well and if Brett Favre is hurt I don’t like the Jets chances to win this game.

Dallas over Philadelphia-For the Cowboys it all comes down to this game.  After all the preseason hype about the possibility of a trip to the Super Bowl if they don’t win this game it all goes out the window as they won’t even make the playoffs.  But, a win and they get a wildcard spot and who knows what can happen after that.  Philadelphia can also get a wildcard with a win and losses by Tampa Bay and either Minnesota or Chicago.  I just think Dallas has too much talent and pressure not to win this game.

Arizona over Seattle-The Cardinals have wrapped up the division and will be te #4 seed in the NFC, but they need to play well to regain some confidence going in after losing 4 0f their last five games.  If they don’t, even playing at home probably won’t keep them from being one and done in the playoffs.

San Francisco over Washington-In a game that means very little other than to those involved, I like the 49ers who have won 4 of 6, while the ‘Skins have lost 5 of 7.

Baltimore over Jacksonville-The Ravens can clinch a wildcard spot with a win or a New England loss (that the simple version).  Jacksonville was able to put up some points and put a scare in Indianapolis last week, but with the playoffs on the line I don’t see them be anywhere near that successful against the 2nd ranked Ravens defense.

San Diego over Denver-This pick pains me greatly as I have been a Broncos fan for 20 years and love tremendously to be wrong.  But, the Broncos have struggled to have any consistency all year and have lost two in a row including their best chance to clinch the AFC West last week at home against Buffalo when they blew a 13-0 2nd quarter lead.  The Chargers on the other hand have won 3 straight and will try to avenge a difficult 39-38 loss at Denver in Week 2.  Unfortunately, I think there are just too many things that line up in San Diego’s favor and they should walk away with an AFC West title.

Last Week: 7-9

Season: 84-39-1

With 34 bowl games this year that means 68 of 119 Division 1A (or FBS if you prefer) teams are going bowling.  Nine of those 68 teams are 6-6, meaning if they lose their bowl they’ll end the season with a losing record.  Are all of these teams truly deserving of the reward of an extra game?  I think not.  That being said since they are playing here’s who I think will win:

EagleBank Bowl-Navy over Wake Forest

New Mexico Bowl-Fresno State over Colorado State

St Petersburg Bowl-South Florida over Memphis

Las Vegas Bowl-BYU over Arizona

New Orleans Bowl-Troy over Southern Mississippi

Poinsettia Bowl-Boise State over TCU

Hawaii Bowl-Hawaii over Notre Dame

Motor City Bowl-Central Michigan over Florida Atlantic

Meineke Car Care Bowl-West Virginia over North Carolina

Champs Sports Bowl-Florida State over Wisconsin

Emerald Bowl-California over Miami (Fl)

Independence Bowl-Northern Illinois over Louisiana Tech

Papajohns.com Bowl-Rutgers over NC State

Alamo Bowl-Missouri over Northwestern

Humanitarian Bowl-Nevada over Maryland

Texas Bowl-Rice over Western Michigan

Holiday Bowl-Oklahoma State over Oregon

Armed Forces Bowl-Air Force over Houston

Sun Bowl-Oregon State over Pittsburgh

Music City Bowl-Boston College over Vanderbilt

Insight Bowl-Minnesota over Kansas

Chick-fil-A Bowl-Georgia Tech over LSU

Outback Bowl-Iowa over South Carolina

Capital One Bowl-Georgia over Michigan State

Gator Bowl-Clemson over Nebraska

Rose Bowl-USC over Penn State

Orange Bowl-Cincinnati over Virginia Tech

Cotton Bowl-Texas Tech over Mississippi

Liberty Bowl-East Carolina over Kentucky

Sugar Bowl-Utah over Alabama

International Bowl-Connecticut over Buffalo

Fiesta Bowl-Texas over Ohio State

GMAC Bowl-Ball State over Tulsa

BCS National Championship Game-Oklahoma over Florida

Season: 61-23

Alright, so last week was not so great for me picking these things.  Hopefully this week will be better.  Let’s get started.

Indianapolis over Jacksonville-The Colts are the hottest team in league with seven straight wins and can clinch a playoff spot with a win.

Dallas over Baltimore-The Cowboys continue their brutal season ending stretch against the Ravens this week.  Their defense, however, has shown the ability to go toe to toe with the Steelers and Giants, so I like Dallas at home this week.

Cincinnati over Cleveland-I just think the Browns are in such disarray right now and with the Bengals feeling confident after beating Washington last week, I like the Bengals in this match up.

New Orleans over Detroit-This should be the penultimate loss for the Lions on their way to an 0-16 record.

Pittsburgh over Tennessee-The winner of this game should be the top seed in the AFC playoffs.  The Steelers have won five in a row and the Titans have struggled a bit since their 10-0 start going just 2-2 (but one was Detroit, so should that really count? ).

Miami over Kansas City-After  going 1-15 last year the Dolphins can win the AFC East by winning their last two games.  What a turnaround.

San Francisco over St Louis-The 49ers are actually 3-2 in their last five games while the Rams have lost eight in a row.

New England over Arizona-While the Cardinals have clinched the NFC West, they have struggled on the road and I think that struggle will continue on cold and snowy New England.

Tampa Bay over San Diego-The Bucs are tied the last playoff spot in the NFC with Atlanta.  Despite a 6-8 record the Chargers still cling to hopes of winning the AFC West if they can win this week, have Denver lose to Buffalo this week, and then beat the Broncos at home next week.

Denver over Buffalo-Denver can clinch the AFC West with a win while the Bills have lost 7 of 8 after a 5-1 start.

Houston over Oakland-With their victory over the Titans last week the Texans have won four in a row.  If they can make it six straight they could have the first winning record in franchise history.

New York Jets over Seattle-The Jets have struggled since ending the Titans bid for a perfect season, yet with wins in their last two games can still win the AFC East.  The Seahawks snapped a six game losing streak last week by beating the lowly Rams.

Minnesota over Atlanta-The Vikings have won four straight and can clinch the NFC North with a victory while the Falcons are tied with Tampa for the last playoff spot in the NFC after beating the Bucs in OT last week.

Philadelphia over Washington-Donovan McNabb’s benching could be the best thing to happen to the Eagles this season as they have won three in a row since then and are still clinging to slim playoff hopes.  Meanwhile the Redskins have lost three in a row with last weeks loss to the Bengals effectively ending any playoff hopes for the ‘Skins.

Carolina over New York Giants-The Panthers have won three straight and the Giants have lost two in a row.  The winner of this game gets the top spot in the NFC playoffs.

Chicago over Green Bay-The Packers have lost four straight after being tied with the Bears and Vikings for first place.  A loss by the Bears gives the Vikings the division title.

Last Week 8-8

Season: 77-30-1

With Arizona, Tennessee, and the Giants clinching division titles last week the playoff picture is starting to take shape.  There are several games this week that should make that picture even clearer.  Here are this week’s picks.

New Orleans at Chicago:

Both teams enter this game with 7-6 records and on the outside of the playoffs.  The Saints realistically are looking at a wild card spot as they sit three games back of 1st place Carolina with only three games left.  But, they are just one game behind Dallas for the last wild card spot.  Chicago, however, still has a solid chance at a division title as they are just one game back of division leader Minnesota.

As for this game, the match ups seem to work out perfectly for the Saints offense.  They have the top pass offense in the league and the Bears struggle to stop the pass ranking 28th.  Conversely, the Bears are 6th in stopping the run and the Saints have struggled to run the ball ranking 27th in the league.  I would look for the Saints to run enough to keep the Bears defense honest, but not looking for much from it and ride Drew Brees right arm to take advantage of Chicago’s struggling secondary.

Pick: New Orleans

Tampa Bay at Atlanta:

This could be one of the best match ups of the week with the 9-4 wild card spot holding Bucs facing off with the 8-5 just on the outside looking in Falcons.  Tampa could all but clinch a playoff spot with a victory.  Both teams enter this week coming off tough road losses where their defenses struggled.  The Falcons should try to take advantage of a Bucs defense that gave up 299 yards rushing as Atlanta has the 2nd best rushing attack in the league.  On the other side, Tampa’s more balanced attack (12th in passing, 13th in rushing) will look to keep the Falcons defense off balance.  Turnovers could be the difference here as Tampa is +5 while Atlanta is -2.

Pick: Atlanta

Washington at Cincinnati:

The 7-6 Redskins will look to get back on track and keep their playoff hopes alive this week and the Bengals could be the perfect remedy for that.  Cincinnati is dead last in total offense while the ‘Skins boast the 5th best defense as far as yards are concerned.  One thing that could keep Cincinnati in the game is that Washington’s offense is just 29th in the league scoring just under 17 points a game.  If the Redskins can put the issues between head coach Jim Zorn and star running back Clinton Portis behind them they should ride Portis and the #7 running game to a much needed victory.

Pick: Washington

Detroit at Indianapolis:

This week it’s Peyton Manning and the Colts chances to move the Lions closer to the dreaded 0-16 mark.  After coming close last week against the Vikings I don’t think it will be at all close this week.  The Colts are the hottest team in the league having won six games in a row including a 35-3 beat down of equally pathetic Cincinnati last week.  With the Lions ranking 30th in total offense and 31st in total defense, I would expect a similar result in the Colts favor this week.

Pick: Indianapolis

San Diego at Kansas City:
The Chargers at 5-8 are clinging to their playoff life sitting three games behind Denver with three games left, a loss to the 2-11 Chiefs this week would seal their doom.  It’s not a stretch to think the Chiefs could deliver that death blow having played well in a one point week 10 loss at San Diego.  Despite being just 1-6 in their seven games the Chiefs have lost four of those games by seven points or less.  As for this game, the question is whether the Chargers offense take advantage of a Chiefs defense that ranks 31st against the run, 29th against the pass, and 32nd in total defense.  If they struggle as having the 26th ranked running game indicates they have, they could see their playoffs hopes die this week.

Pick: Kansas City

Seattle at St Louis:

This game should be called the “Does Anyone Really Care Bowl” as it features two 2-11 teams with nothing to play for but their jobs.  I mean, the Seahawks offense is 20th in rushing, 31st in passing, 29th in total offense, and 25th in scoring while the Rams offense is 28th in rushing, 27th in passing, 27th in total offense, and 31st in scoring.  Defensively things are no better with Seattle ranking 21st against the run, 32nd against the pass, 30th in total defense, and 27th in scoring and the Rams 29th against the run, 24th against the pass, 29th in total defense, and 31st in scoring.  If I have to pick one of these teams I’ll take Seattle who looks to be a shade less anemic.

Pick: Seattle

San Francisco at Miami:

The Dolphins enter this game in a three way tie with the Jets and Patroits for first place in the AFC East, but are on the outside looking in right now having lost to the Jets in week one.  But, they could get a test from the 49ers, who despite being 5-8 overall have won three of their last four, including last week against the Jets.  I look for both teams to throw the ball as despite ranking 11th in the league against the run the Dolphins are 21st aginst the pass and the 49ers are 25th.  Ultimately, I think the Dolphins ability to force turnovers rank tops in the league at a +12 will help them beat the 49ers who have a penchant for turning the ball over ranking last with a -14 turnover margin.

Pick: Miami

Buffalo at New York Jets:

The Bills are clinging to slim playoff hopes having lost 7 of 9 after their 4-0 start.  The Jets are also clinging to a playoff spot on the strength of the previously mentioned win over Miami in week one that currently gives them the tiebreaker edge for 1st place in the AFC East.  However, if they are going to solidify that spot they will need to bounce back from two disappointing losses to Denver and San Francisco.  I think the Jets will behind the 9th best running game in the league and if Trent Edwards can’t play I think the Bills will continue to struggle to score as they have in putting up just six total points the last two weeks.

Pick: New York Jets

Green Bay at Jacksonville:

Three weeks ago the Packers were looking pretty good at 5-5 tied with the Vikings and Bears, who they’d just beaten 37-3, for first place in the NFC North.  Three weeks later after three straight losses where they’ve given up almost 37 points a game their season is now done.  Despite that they are the hotter team coming in to this game as the Jags have lost four in a row.  While the Jags have a decent running game ranking 17th in the league and are going against a Packers defense that ranks 27th against the run, I think the weapons the Pack have offensively to rank 4th in the league in scoring will get them through this game.

Pick: Green Bay

Tennessee at Houston:

I think this is a more interesting match up than one might think.  The Texans have won three in a row with the 4th best pass offense and 3rd best total offense in the league.  For Tennessee they can wrap up home field throughout the playoffs with a win and a Steelers loss.  The Titans rank 7th against the run, 3rd against the pass, 3rd in total defense, and 2nd in scoring defense so it will be intriguing to see how they do with a confident and potent Houston offense.  Where I think the Titans win this game is with their running game that’s third in the league and has bounced back the last couple of games with Chris Johnson rushing for over 100 yards in both and LenDale White missing that feat by one yard.  They should have similar success against a Texan defense that ranks 24th against the run.

Pick: Tennessee

Minnesota at Arizona:

The Cardinals clinched their first division title in 33 years last week as well as getting their first home playoff game in 61 years.  That said they still have a lot to play for in this match up of first place teams.  The Cardinals still have a chance if they win out to get the 2nd seed in the NFC and a first round bye.  In this game the highest scoring team in the league in Kurt Warner and the Cardinals face a Vikings defense that ranks 2nd against the run but just 20th against the pass and since the Cards are last in the league running the ball that could end up badly for the Vikes.  For Minnesota they are lead by Adrian Peterson, the league’s leading rusher, but Arizona has done a decent job stopping the run, ranking 12th in the league.  Throw in the uncertainty of who will start at QB for Minnesota and I like the Cardinals to improve to 6-1 at home

Pick: Arizona

New England at Oakland:

The Patroits should keep their quest to win the AFC East alive in this matchup with the 3-10 Raiders.  The Raiders rank 32nd in pass offense, 31st in total offense,  30th in scoring offense, 30th in rush defense, and 26th in total defense.  With the Patroits ranking 8th in rushing offense, 8th in total offense, and in the middle of the pack on defense they should have a lot of success this week.

Pick: New England

Denver at Carolina:

Denver can clinch the AFC West with a win this week while Carolina is looking to be the top seed in the NFC if they can win their last three games.  Carolina will look to duplicate their effort from Monday night against Tampa Bay when they rushed for 299 yards as they feature the 4th best running game in the league and the Broncos defense is 26th in stopping the run.  Conversely, the Broncos will be going with their sixth running back this year after Peyton Hillis was placed on IR with a hamstring injury so they will rely even more on Jay Cutler and the 3rd best passing offense in the league to score on a Panthers defense that’s been average against the pass ranking 14th in the league.  So it’s an interesting contrast in offensive styles in the week’s second match up of division leaders.

Pick: Carolina

Pittsburgh at Baltimore:

This is an old school smash mouth match up with the Steelers D ranking 1st in rush, pass, total and scoring defense and the Ravens 3rd against the run, 2nd against the pass, 2nd in total defense, and 3rd in scoring defense.  It’s also a battle for first place in the AFC North with Pittsburgh a game ahead coming in.  I think the difference could be a Ravens offense that ranks 5th in running the ball and 12th in scoring while the top ranking for Pittsburgh’s offense is 20th in passing.  But, hanging to the ball will be huge as Baltimore is +8 and Pittsburgh +7 in turnover margin.  This should be a great game.

Pick: Baltimore

New York Giants at Dallas:

The Giants clinched the division last week despite probably their worst performance of the year against the Eagles.  The Cowboys on the other hand are clinging to the final NFC playoff spot after blowing a ten point fourth quarter lead against the Steelers.  Having Tony Romo at QB should help them played better than they did in a 35-14 loss to the Giants in week nine when Brad Johnson and Brooks Bollinger were picked off three times.  How much though is the question given the Giants defense is ranked 5th against the run, 8th against the pass, 6th in total defense, and 4th in scoring defense.  Conversely, the Cowboys defense for three quarters against Pittsburgh showed why they are ranked 9th in the league against the run, 10th against the pass and 8th in total defense.  Unfortunately, the fourth quarter was evidence as to why they are just 17th in scoring defense.  They will be severely tested by a Giants team that leads the league in rush offense, although that might be made easier if Brandon Jacobs doesn’t play.

Pick: New York Giants

Cleveland at Philadelphia:

The Eagles showed how desperate they are to make the playoffs keeping their hopes alive by going to New York and knocking off the Giants last week.  They should continue their late season push against a pathetic Cleveland offense that ranks 24th in rushing, 29th in passing, 28th in total offense, and 27 in scoring and have both Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn out for the season.  With that resume coming in to Philly who has the 4th ranked total defense in the league this could be a blood bath.

Pick: Philadelphia

Last Week: 12-4

Season: 69-22-1

On Sunday the BCS made official what everyone thought would happen after Florida and Oklahoma were victorious in their respective conference title games, pitting the two teams against each other in the BCS national championship game.  The question is are they really the two best teams in the country?

With seven BCS conference teams with one loss, it’s hard to say.  I mean, Florida only lost by one point.  But, their loss was at home, while Penn State’s only defeat was also by one point, but it was on the road.  Does that mean the Nittany Lions are more deserving than the Gators?  Texas beat Oklahoma on a neutral site and their loss was by only six points on the road.  Should they go over the Sooners?  Texas Tech will then tell you they beat Texas, but then you come back to them getting blasted by 44 points to Oklahoma.  The Big 12 roulette wheel keeps spinning.  Alabama jumps in saying they were the last unbeaten team with their only defeat coming at the hands of Florida in a back and forth SEC title game on a neutral site.  Then you have USC, who lost by six on the road the same as Texas and boast the best defense in the country.  Then you have the Utah Utes, who will tell you these teams can argue over whose loss is the best but, they didn’t lose to anyone and are champions of what could arguably be considered the third best conference in the country this year in the Mountain West.

When you look at all these factors I think it’s hard to definitively say Florida and Oklahoma are the two best teams, but I think it’s equally as difficult to say they aren’t.  Of these eight teams, Oklahoma and Florida are the two highest scoring teams while only USC and Penn State give up fewer points than the Gators.

The bigger issue I think here is that this year is the clearest case for a playoff.  You have eight teams who have legitimate claims to a right to play for the national championship and if there was a playoff they would all have a chance.  That said, I’m not naive enough to think it’s ever going to happen.  There’s too much money involved in the current system with the bowls and the BCS conference teams that they will never give that up.  Other than when a team like Utah this year goes undefeated and gets an at large bid, the BCS conference don’t want to share and if you want further proof of that it’s in the fact that even though they were eligible an undefeated Boise State team was left out in favor of a two loss Ohio State team.

So, as much as I don’t like the BCS and root for scenarios like this year every year, short of the impossible happening and having a playoff it’s sadly probably the best it’s going to get.  With that said, it’s hard to say they 100% got it right, but it’s also hard to say they didn’t.

It’s championship weekend with several teams playing for a shot in the national title game.  Here are my predictions.

SEC Championship:

#1 Alabama over #2 Florida-I know a lot of people think Florida is the best team in the country, but Alabama’s defense is one of the best in the country and I think they’ll be able to slow down Florida enough to pull this one out, especially if Percy Harvin isn’t able to play for the Gators.

Big 12 Championship:

#4 Oklahoma over #19 Missouri-Whether you think Oklahoma deserves to be in this game or not they are clearly better than the Tigers, however teams ranked in the AP top 5 are only 5-5 in this game.

#5 USC over UCLA-The Trojans still have an outside chance at the title game if Oklahoma loses, that should be all the Trojans phenominal defense should need to dominate a Bruin offense that has sturggled all year with QB Kevin Craft having been picked off 19 times.

MAC Championship:

#12 Ball State over Buffalo-Ball State will look to become the third non-BCS conference to complete it’s season undefeated prior to the bowls.

Hawaii over #13 Cincinnati-The Big East champion Bearcats take a trip to the islands and with a trip to a BCS bowl already sewn up, so a lack of focus might be an issue against a good 7-5 Hawaii team.

ACC Championship:

#18 Boston College over Virginia Tech-The Eagles will try to make it two victories over the Hokies this season after beating them 28-23 on October 18th.  They’ve won four in a row and have played really well on defense having shut out Notre Dame to start the streak.

#23 Pittsurgh over Connecticut-The Panthers are coming off a come from behind victory over West Virginia and would like to get some payback for the Huskies 34-13 victory at Pitt a year ago.

Last Week: 12-1

Season: 58-19

Okay, so I’ve tried some different formats for my posts on picking the games and I really appreciate your feedback as to what you like the best.  So, please let me know what you think.  Now for this week’s picks.

San Diego over Oakland-I give the edge to the home team here in a battle of two struggling football teams, as this is a must win game for the Chargers if they want to have any chance to catch Denver in the AFC West.

Chicago over Jacksonville-This is another match up of struggling teams with the Bears having lost 3 of 4 (their only win coming against the pathetic Rams) and the Jags having lost 5 of 6.  I think the Bears being at home and being used to the cold weather give them the edge in a game that should be a battle of ground games.

Minnesota over Detroit-This represents maybe the best chance for the Lionst avoid going 0-16 as they lost by just 2 points in Minnesota on October 12th.  I just think the Vikings, who have won 6 of 8 since a 1-3 start, are playing too well right now to get beat by Detroit who doesn’t do anything well.

Houston over Green Bay-The Texans come in to this game as the hotter team having won their last two games, while the Packers have lost two in a row giving up 86 points in the process.

Tennessee over Cleveland-The Titans take on another struggling team after their 37 point beat down of Detroit on Thanksgiving.  The Browns now have both Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson out for the season.

Indianapolis over Cincinnati-The Colts have won five in a row after winning a defensive struggle last week over Cleveland.  I don’t think they’ll struggle to score this week in a battle of two of the most anemic running games in the league.

Atlanta over New Orleans-This is a contrast in styles offensively as the Falcons are 2nd in the league running the ball and the Saints are tops in throwing it.  I think Atlanta’s ability to run, use the clock and keep Drew Brees on the sidelines gives them the edge.

New York Giants over Philadelphia-Donovan McNabb and the Eagles seemed to right their ship a bit on Thanksgiving scoring 48 points against the Cardinals, but the defending champs have the 3rd best defense in the league.  So, despite putting up 31 points against New York at home four weeks ago, I don’t think they’ll have the same success on the road this week.

Miami over Buffalo-It will be interesting to see which Bills offense shows up, the one that lit up the Chiefs for 54 points on the road two weeks ago or the one that scored only 3 points at home on Sunday against the 49ers.  I just think the Dolphins are the better, more consistent football team.

Denver over Kansas City-The question here is which Denver team shows up: the one that’s won three straight on the road or the one that got beat 31-10 to the Raiders in their last home game.  I think Peyton Hillis has made a huge difference in their running game and allowed Jay Cutler to be even more deadly throwing the ball.

New York Jets over San Francisco-I think the Jets will be very disappointed in their performance last week at home against Denver that they will come out strong against the 49ers.

New England over Seattle-In the battle of the Matts at QB, I’ll take Cassell over Hasselbeck.  The Seahawks are 31st in offensive yards and 30th in defensive yards, not good going against Cassell and Randy Moss.

Arizona over St Louis-The Cardinals can clinch the NFC West with a win.  With that opportunity is there anyone better to welcome to town than the Rams (well, maybe the LIons).

Dallas over Pittsburgh-I know the Steelers have the best D in the league, but Big D’s offense has been rejuvinated by the return of Tony Romo.  I think the Cowboys will be able to score some points and I don’t know if you can say the same for the Steelers.

Baltimore over Washington-The Redskins struggled against a good Giants defense lats week and I think they’ll struggle again this week against the 2nd best total defense in Baltimore.

Carolina over Tampa Bay-This is a battle for 1st place in the NFC South.  I think the Panthers 7th ranked running game will be able to do some things against the Bucs 4th ranked total defense and win a close game at home.

Last Week: 12-4

Season: 57-18-1

On Tuesday the National Hockey League suspended Dallas Stars forward Sean Avery after he made some disparaging comments about players in the league dating his former girlfriends.  Now, I know from following the Kings for years, that Sean Avery can be a jerk, that he says and does things that are pretty stupid.  However, whatever happened to freedom of speech.  No matter how rude and inappropriate what he said might be, he has the right to say it and since it really had nothing to do with hockey, I don’t see where the league has an right to suspend him.  I heard some people on television yesterday talking about a cumulative effect and I find that ridiculous.  If there were things in the past that were so offensive why wasn’t he suspended at that time.  To say something wasn’t worthy of suspension at the time it happened, but now that you’ve done this, this, and this since we’re going to suspend you for the cumulative total of what you’ve done it’s just plain wrong.

I also think it’s a little holier than thou of Dallas Stars owner Tom Hicks to say if the league hadn’t suspended him they would have and that they are a classier organization than that.  Really, you think so?   Then why did you sign Sean Avery to a four-year contract.  You knew what type of player and person he was when you signed him so, to say now we’re a classier organization than that is a little high and mighty of them.  If you’re really such a classy organization that you don’t condone the behavior like this, maybe you should have thought about that before you signed Sean Avery to be a part of your team.

That being said had the Stars suspended him and not the NHL, I would have less of a problem with that as he is a member of the team and as such they can deem his comments to be detrimental to the team or conduct unbecoming of the team or whatever they want to call it.  As a player for the Dallas Stars he is a direct representative of the organization and what he says does reflect poorly on them, so I can understand if they suspended him, but why the league stepped in before the team could do anything puzzles me.  But, then I don’t understand why players and coaches get fined in various leagues for criticizing the referees, either.

I mean, as long as the player or coach making the comments isn’t threatening to hurt another player or ref, I don’t see where they get off fining or suspending players for what they say.  Last time I checked we still have freedom of speech in this country and while what is said may not be very nice or appropriate people still have the right to say it.  If you start suspending people for comments they make, I think you start down a very dangerous path.  I mean, if I’m a player why would i even talk to the press or give more than yes and no answers in fear that something I said might offend someone and get me suspended.

There used to be an understanding between players and reporters that certain things were off the record and stayed in the locker room.  Now players are so afraid to get to friendly with reporters or even letting fans take pictures with them for fear they’ll end up on some blog or Youtube making them look bad.  Do we want to start adding to that, them being leery of saying much at all because the league might suspend them for simple being a jerk?

Now Avery apologized yesterday for what he said and is in New York today to meet with NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman, so hopefully there will be a resolution that will end this blatant censorship by the NHL and allow Avery to return to the ice tomorrow when the Stars face the Colorado Avalanche in Dallas.

The final BCS standings don’t come out for another week, but they have already decided one thing.  By ranking Oklahoma 2nd and Texas 3rd, the BCS handed Oklahoma a spot in the Big 12 championship game.

With three teams (Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech) tied for first place in the Big 12’s southern division the tiebreaker scenarios came in to play.  The first tiebreaker of course is head to head, which didn’t decide anything as Oklahoma beat Texas Tech, Texas Tech beat Texas, and Texas beat Oklahoma making them all 1-1 against each other.  The second tiebreaker is record within the division in which all three are again tied at 4-1.  The 3rd tiebreaker is record versus each team in their division in order of finish starting with 4th place Oklahoma State, which they all beat, then 5th place Baylor, which again they all beat, and finally 6th place Texas A&M, which of course all three beat.  After that the tiebreakers go to record against all common conference opponents, where again the three teams are tied with 5-1 records.  Which brings it to the 5th tiebreaker which happens to be which team is ranked highest in the BCS standings, which gives Oklahoma ranked 2nd the edge and the spot in the Big 12 championship game over 3rd ranked Texas and 7th ranked Texas Tech.

Now is that really the best way to determine who has a chance to play for your conference championship?  I mean, you’re letting voters, who have their own prejudices and bias, and a bunch of computers decide the division winner rather than what happened on the field.

So let’s discuss what did happen on the field.  Whether it’s right or not Texas Tech played themselves out of the conversation by getting hammered by Oklahoma and barely getting past a below average Baylor team.  Which leaves the decision really down to Oklahoma and Texas and if that’s the case I don’t see how you can say Oklahoma is better than Texas.  I mean, you have two very good football teams with the same record who played each other on a neutral field and Texas won that game.  However, because their final opponent (Texas A&M) wasn’t as good as Oklahoma’s (Oklahoma State) and didn’t give them the same SOS boost in the computer rankings the Longhorns got jumped in the BCS standings by Oklahoma and  may have lost any chance at a national championship.

So now Texas sits at home and hopes that Missouri can pull off the upset of Oklahoma and maybe vault them back up to #2.  But, even in that case there’s no guarantee because what if the voters feel that the national championship game should be between two teams that won their conferences.  If for arguments sake we say Alabama beats Florida in the SEC title game, that would give you Alabama staying #1, Oklahoma dropping out by losing to Missouri, Florida dropping out for losing to Alabama, and could potential put USC in the national championship game if they beat UCLA because they would the 2nd highest ranked conference champion.  The thing is though, that same argument could be made had it been reversed if it were Texas sitting second right now and Oklahoma third.

The blame here for all this mess belongs with the Big 12, who decided to put the BCS standings in as part of their tiebreaker scenarios.  There are so many other things that could have been used as a tiebreaker rather than something so full of bias it’s not even funny.  I mean, you could use point differential in the games between the three teams, which would have gone to Oklahoma with a +34 to Texas’ +4, and Texas Tech’s -38.  Or you could use point differential against division opponents or common conference opponents like they do with record against them.  If you think that will lead to teams running up the score on  opponents, I’ve got news for you, they already do that to try and impress the voters and help themselves move up in the BCS standings.

I just think it’s sad that something like the BCS standings is a part of your determining your championship.  Heck, if you’re going to use something arbitrary maybe they should take Texas Tech coach Mike Leach’s suggestion and use graduation rate to determine the winner, it would make just as much sense.